The following is shared from the State of Oregon Employment Department:
The potential labor market impacts of emerging artificial intelligence technologies have been studied by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Employment Projections program assessed current evidence to determine whether enough is known to support a conclusion about the direction and magnitude of the technology’s future impact on the labor market. Findings were incorporated into BLS industry and occupational projections.
In Oregon, the BLS’ research on the potential labor market impacts of AI are incorporated into Oregon’s 2024-2034 long-term industry and occupational projections. This article unpacks the industries and occupations expected to experience employment demand increases, decreases, and offsetting effects due to AI development and adoption.
Artificial Intelligence – A Rapidly Evolving Technology
Artificial intelligence is defined in Merriam Webster as the capability of computer systems or algorithms to imitate intelligent behavior. While working AI technologies have existed since the early 1950s, the invention of Transformer technology in 2017 led to new types of large language models (LLMs) and generative AI (GenAI) such as Open AI’s Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT1).
Public access to these tools became available in 2022 and sparked conversations about the potential of AI technologies to increase productivity, allowing more work to be performed by the same number or fewer people, transforming how we live and work. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the U.S. economy has expanded throughout many periods of technological progress such as electrification, the adoption of the internal combustion engine, and computerization of the workforce—all of which increased productivity and living standards. These changes were viewed as at least as important as AI is today.
Assumptions, Limitations, and Incorporating Expected Change
Oregon’s long-term industry and occupational employment projections incorporate the BLS’ assumption that the pace of structural change in the economy will follow its historical pattern of occurring gradually, with job displacement due to technological change taking longer than technologists expect. Oregon’s long-term employment projections follow BLS methodology which “connects the potential employment impacts of a new technology with data trends” to “determine whether these impacts are likely to diminish as the benefits of the technology are fully realized.”
It can take time for employers and workers to learn how to incorporate new technologies into business practices. New technologies may also alter the types of tasks performed in an occupation even if they do not impact demand for employment. Future governmental policies such as regulation and funding may also affect employment patterns. However, employment projections for the U.S. and Oregon are based on current law.
In cases where the direction and magnitude of expected change are clear, these changes are integrated into national projections through mechanisms such as change factors for detailed occupations within industries, which are applied to Oregon’s occupational employment projections. As productivity gains from AI technologies translate to employment impacts in Oregon, these impacts are captured in the industry data which directly influence employment projections. For cases where employment may not currently be impacted, research-based judgement may be used and is typically applied conservatively.
As Oregon’s employment projections are updated annually, information that helps clarify the impacts of AI technologies will be incorporated into future projections data. The following sections will look at select industries and occupations in Oregon where employment is expected to be impacted due to the development and adoption of AI technologies from 2024 to 2034.